The national development and reform commission experts: open up two children is not enough to cope with

On November 10, 2015

Source: China newsweek

, macroeconomic policy, the national development and reform commission (NDRC) 】 experts: open up two children is not enough to cope with

Population expansion does not appear, 15 years after China's population is expected to reach a peak, 1.45 billion

The background of the one-child policy after 35 years

In 1973, our country to practise family planning across the country. In this background, from September 25, 1980, the central committee of the communist party of China on control of population growth in our country to all the communist youth league member's letter, the one-child policy has been performed for 35 years. Of these, 1982 were identified as the basic state policy of family planning, and the country's constitution and.

During this period, China's population aging, the trend of country, even has a population of scholars predict that 2020 years later, will hire, marry and pension difficult problems, which restrict social and economic development.

Released on October 29, 2015, the communist party of the fifth plenary session of the 18 bulletin pointed out that "promote the balanced development of population, adhere to the basic state policy of family planning, improve the population development strategy, the full implementation of a couple can have two child policy, actively deal with an ageing population action." This means that China implement 35 years of one-child policy officially came to an end.

18 the fifth plenary session of the communique announced that "the full implementation of a couple can have two child policy", and the population policy adjustment from the 18 November 2013 the third plenary session decided to let go of the "two children" alone, less than two years.

In a short period of time intensive adjust the population policy, triggered a boost fertility rates will lead to the concerns of the population expansion. Social development of the national development and reform commission, the director of the institute of Yang in an interview with the China economic weekly "reporter said," a comprehensive two child policy will bring baby boom in the short term, but will not cause the population expansion, even if the future full of the family planning, and may also have not how many people, the population of China is no more than 1.5 billion. In fact, not only in China, the common world fertility intentions were relatively low."

Expert view: having two children first childbearing willing to meet people, second delay aging process

In 1982, was identified as a basic state policy of family planning, and are included in the constitution. After the country according to the situation of population and economic and social development, continuously improve the family planning policy adjustment.

"At that time the population of our country has overload, so that the implementation of family planning decision is right." Yang said.

However, since entering the new century, the population development of our country is a tipping point. Although still have large population base, low fertility, population aging, the one-child family such as population increase in the number of structural problems are increasingly prominent, has increasingly become the important factors that affect economic and social development.

Once organizations to carry out the development strategy research of population under the state council, China's total population peak should be controlled in 1.5 billion, women's total fertility rate remain at around 1.8, too high or too low are not conducive to the coordinated development of population and economic society. The latest census, according to the results of China's fertility rate has fallen to 1.18 low level.

In addition to low fertility, aging has become a problem in China. National bureau of statistics data show that in 2014 China's 212 million people aged 60 and above the old man, the proportion is 15.5%; 65 years of age or older population of 137 million people, accounting for more than 10.1%, equivalent to one in every ten people the elderly over the age of 65.

Dealing with structural problems, including an aging population, population, a lot of people think that is the direct reason of the policy of open up 2 children. Honorary President of the national development research institute of Beijing university Lin commented on in the face of questions from reporters, "adjust the population policy is late now, but the total is better than not to adjust."

However, open up two children can solve the problem of aging population? Yang's answer is no.

"Let go two children not only to deal with aging, but ordinary people have fertility desire, therefore is to respect the willingness of people to breed and reproductive rights, second can retard aging in a period of time." Yang told reporters that even if let go of the one child policy may slow down the aging process, but ten years later still will face the aging of the problem. "But now adjustment is not late, done is better than never."

Researcher at the national school of administration Hu Xianzhi told the China economic weekly "reporter:" at present, the main problems of population age structure is unreasonable, and the age structure is difficult to adjust, ageing at present all over the world, and developing trend is gradually deepened."

"Only delay the retirement age." Yang said, has always been retired at age 60, seventy - year - old is old now, the key is to adjust the retirement age, "much more surface water, the water surface, are not enough, the population structure adjustment is a drop in the ocean."

Experts expect: 15 years China's population will peak

Compared with double alone, separate two child, open up the second child policy coverage to the large number of crowd. About policy will appear again after let go of the "population expansion" concerns are accompanying.

Open up two child policy after implementation will increase how much population? Renmin university of China society and population zhai zhengwu mentioned in an interview with the media, according to statistics, China's only a child in the number of married women of childbearing age in 145 million, minus the original birth two children for the qualified people, such as rural only a girl, and double alone, alone, about more than 9000.

Cover, however, not all people could or would like to have two children, even in the baby boom years, a number that is not very high. Zhen-wu zhai, said in the target population in the majority of older, especially people born between 1966 and 1975, for a large proportion, and the life is low, the second child will therefore actual quantity are limited to have two children. Besides, demographers, Johns Hopkins university, Dr Biostatistics wen-zheng huang predicts that "70 mothers will take the time after birth, neonatal let go after new policies, estimates are between 3 million and 8 million, but more than 8 million chance". Wen-zheng huang, expects China to baby boom in 2017, was born in 2017 in the population value is about 22 million, "it's going to be 1991 years, and even the next hundred years the newborn" one of the biggest.

Even so, this trend is unsustainable. Yang, director of the China economic weekly "reporter said," at present our country already has a population of 1.35 billion, having two children in an all-round way, won't appear population boom." He calculated according to the national bureau of statistics, in the case of the full-scale opening of children, by 2030 China's population is 1.45 billion.

"15 years after 1.45 billion, the population is still manageable. After the peak value of the estimated population of 1.45 billion to 2030, the population of a turning point can only be seen absolute reduction in the number (population), then the policy will adjust again." Yang said.

In fact, the two children or the family planning policy, even if in the future a comprehensive of three children, and in essence is family planning, just at different levels of birth limitation. For family planning in China, ctrip co-founder, Beijing university guanghua school of management professor James liang's point of view is very clear, "there is no need to worry about completely let go of the one child policy will rebound sharply even more than replacement fertility levels, really have to worry about was let go two foetuses are far from enough. Therefore, to comprehensively to restore fertility."

The future of our country or to reward children

Real problem is that before the open two child policy, the Chinese family will have low level.

The judgment is based on a survey about the Chinese fertility intentions. Associate professor, school of the central university of finance and the social development jia-wei hou, yellow joint four people such as Lin said, the ideal of the Chinese children experience a higher level of the 1980 s, the rapid decline in the 1990 s, since 2000 stable at lower levels of these three stages. Chinese ideal number of children to an average of 2.13 in the 1980 s, 1990 s dropped to below 2.1, reduced to 1.67 in 2000-2011, far below the "replacement level" of 2.1 (editor's note: refers to the population size to maintain a countries and regions the fertility rate in long-term stability needed). China has entered the stage of fertility under fertility intentions, the actual number of children will be less than ideal number of children.

In fact, is not only China, degree of decline in fertility rates around the world also surprising. The United Nations has said that 46% of the world's 83 countries (including all European countries) the current fertility rate is below 2.1 children per woman of replacement rate.

"Will let two children now, because too many families do not have children, the next step is estimated in less than 10 years birth can achieve freedom. Freedom after the next stage is to reward, if you are not free, the population of China is less than 1 billion people, will reward birth." Yang said.

From the "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend"

China's sustained and rapid economic growth in recent decades was a "miracle". In exploring why China can create economic growth "miracle", a lot of people are summed up in its "demographic dividend".

The so-called "demographic dividend", refers to a country's population of working age population proportion bigger, dependency ratio is lower, for economic development have created favorable conditions, the population of the economy as a whole has high savings, high investment and high growth situation.

Studies have shown that, since reform and opening up, China's demographic dividend has contributed more than 20% of per capita income growth.

Zhou the deputy director of the central party school of the international institute for strategic studies in China from 1974 to 1994, changes in population growth data from 1994 to 2014 growth data correlation analysis, found the two highly related, he said, "baby young youth, such as less population proportion in the population structure of rapid decline, affect the domestic investment spending, which makes the economic downturn."

China's "demographic dividend" disappear from 2013. In January 2013, the national bureau of statistics, according to data released 15 ~ 59 working-age population in 2012 in China for the first time in a long period of time absolute decline, less than last year, 3.45 million people. Would seem to indicate that the demographic dividend tends to disappear, lead to China's economy in the future will have a "slow". Since 2012, China's working-age population aged 15 to 59 falling for 3 years.

"In fact" demographic dividend "is meaningless," demographic dividend "is muscle economy, cannot be overemphasized, the world's most value is a" talent dividend "." Yang said, for example, Nike shoes made in China, for example, $39 a pair in the United States, in China's $139 a pair, the common people to buy a pair of shoes for $100 less. "That is selling the muscles of the simple labor economic service to the wisdom of the U.S. economy. At that time, China's poverty, not just by selling coolies. However, the current global economic development, four two dial one thousand jins, want to rely on economic wisdom."

Has nothing to do with population and economic wisdom. Theory of population, more than 300 million people in the United States, Russia, 140 million people, China is 1.35 billion, the population is not less, according to Yang believes that China does not lack of population, lack of talent, the low level competition relies on a "demographic dividend", by "talent dividend" high-level competition. "talent dividend" not only by volume, this is the very."